Below economic new normal state, predicting country monetary policy will still maintain dovish neutral

Last week 5, national debt futures 10 years of period debt 1706 agreement fall 0.1%; 5 years of period debt 1706 agreement fall 0.05% . That day, the Central Bank began 140 billion yuan to go against with means of interest rate invite public bidding counter-purchase an operation. Among them, 7 days of breed 100 billion yuan, 14 days of breed 40 billion yuan, interest rate all keeps balance with early days. In view of 100 billion yuan are gone against that day counter-purchase expire, implementation capital puts in 40 billion yuan completely.

Economy is added fast good at anticipating, avoid danger demand drops somewhat

July the middle ten days of a month, the economic data of 2 quarters is announced in succession. The data that national statistic bureau publishs shows, the GDP of 2 quarters home is twenty thousand and eighty billion seven hundred million yuan, rise compared to the same period 6.9% , good at 6.8% what anticipate. Suffer the effect that price index glides continuously, the market before this thinks 2 quarters GDP is added generally fast or will relatively first quarter of 6.9% add fast drop, but the data of 2 quarters relatively the GDP first quarter keeps balance, the tenacity that shows economy is driving, great alleviated what the market glides to economy is anxious.

At present consumption is remained pull move domestic economy to rise the mainest motive force, its are added to economy fast it is the biggest that contribution is spent. Home is retail in June taste consumption to be two thousand nine hundred and eighty billion eight hundred million yuan, relatively the corresponding period rose last year two hundred and ninety-five billion and sixty million yuan, rise compared to the same period 11% , add fast for the highest value since December 2015.

Invest a respect, domestic fixed assets invested the forehead that finish to achieve seven thousand six hundred and eighty-eight billion six hundred and seventy-three million yuan in June, the level of before far outclass 5 months. Not only such, the look forward to as economy is firm and the improvement of investment climate, civilian investment also is improved somewhat. First half of the year, domestic folk investment is added fast for 7.2% , relatively before the value picks up 0.4% . Estate invests a respect, although estate invests whole to present next slippery state first half of the year this year, but estate development investment finished the forehead to achieve one thousand three hundred and one billion five hundred and thirty-two million yuan in June, to have the optimal show since statistic.

Respect of imports and exports, total value of domestic imports and exports is 13.14 trillion yuan of RMBs first half of the year, relatively the corresponding period grew 19.6% last year. Among them, import 5.93 trillion yuan, growth 25.7%; exports 7.21 trillion yuan, growth 15%; favorable balance of trade 1.28 trillion RMB, close narrow 17.7% . Amount of domestic imports and exports was three hundred and fifty billion four hundred and seventeen million dollar in June, relatively the corresponding period rose last year 42.55 billion dollar, rise 13.82% , since the expression of amount of imports and exports is nearly 4 months optimal.

In light of the economic data that publishs from the near future, the economy of 2 quarters has been behaved at anticipating, this is great carry brace up the confidence of the market. Suffer this effect, the risk preference of the market will rise somewhat, the configuration demand that receives capital fund to the solid such as national debt will drop somewhat. Not only such, better economy is behaved, will sturdy government is maintained slant slightly at present the determination of tight monetary policy. Later period monetary policy is not had continue comfortable condition, this compressed the space of interest rate be issued to lower levels further, the price to bond also will emerge suppress.

Go against counter-purchase a large number of putting in, hopeful of level of short-term interest rate drops

From the point of current interest rate level, suffer the effect with close hasten of monetary policy of near future Central Bank, level of short-term interest rate presents small ascendant state, in long-term interest rate level is small drop. Because the Central Bank is in,break down of the last ten-day of a month went against the time that counter-purchases half month in June, the near future is gone against counter-purchase to scheduled time and quantity less. Last week, the Central Bank is only of 200 billion yuan of RMBs go against counter-purchase expire. Because last week is to pay tax,ask for period deadline, of the Central Bank go against counter-purchase strength bigger. The Central Bank undertook amount is 710 billion yuan in all last week go against counter-purchase, the Central Bank put in many fluidity to the market through open market business, this conduces to alleviate the problem that level of short-term interest rate rises. But this week Central Bank has 540 billion yuan go against counter-purchase expire, capital pressure is greater still.

In addition, countrywide finance communicates the argument with the mainest drive that give on working conference is windbreak danger, be on guard especially systematization risk. Considering this conference spirit, we think to go the principal target that lever remains prospective economy to work, continue to carry out slant tight monetary policy was become go the important step of lever. Be based on this judgement, the monetary policy with loose near future attributes the short-term action of the Central Bank, of whole dovish slant neutral monetary policy will still continue.

The place on put together is narrated, economy of 2 quarters country has been behaved at anticipating, this increased the risk preference of the market, squelched firm accepts the demand of asset. In addition, economic look forward to is firm alleviated governmental pressure, the market does not need overmuch fluidity to prop up. Countrywide finance emphasizes the root of fangfeng be being mixed nearly on working conference go lever compressed space of loose monetary policy further. Accordingly, the author thinks the Central Bank is gone against counter-purchasing a quantity is short-term action greatly relatively, the monetary policy of later period still maintains neuter, price of national debt of this will great suppress.