International crude price closes once more in Zhou Er drop, futures of American NYMEX crude oil is in move after the storehouse delivers the goods, most of the near future agreement will fall for a time in August split every pails of 43 dollars " floor " price, this implies the peak value that compares every pails of 55 dollars that record first year after year nowadays, oil price has dropped went exceeding 20% , technical after one year many is being lain between when rebuking city configuration has been in once more establish. And short-term inside market prospect is not hopeful also.

NYMEX crude price is in on May 24, namely the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (before OPEC) holds half year meeting, rebound the perch to 51.88 dollars, but after this, oily city with respect to open boundless Xiong Tu. Although from apparently it seems that, the result of OPEC conference makes a person everyone is happy, each just agree current 1.8 million / the forehead spends the reduction of output of bucket day to lengthen 9 months to arrive by March 2018 again, but unexpectedly the beginning that this became oil price nightmare however.

In OPEC conference that day, crude price weighs defeat namely 5% , the reason is beginning to oppugn OPEC reduction of output to be opposite at the market the practical effect of Shu delay overstock state more and more doubt, at the same time everybody more of doubt is, after to next year agreement of reduction of output expired once more in March. It is difficult that OPEC is broken continue to persuade its member to continue to accept reduction of output, this waits to gave oily city bull to be adjudged ahead of schedule then " stay of execution. Then, the market is negative the mood ferments ahead of schedule, oil price also lasted since the bottom in May oneself shade drops up to now, be close to on Zhou Xiantu pull 5 even shade.

Although, long-term to oil price prospect also does not value a lot of observation personages before this really, but of near future oil price drop still make them surprised. And Gao Cheng of the orgnaization inside course of study points out, this may be investor the negative feedback that to market price of OPEC adjusting control style capacity tends lost foreground place gives out. And Gao Cheng thinks, OPEC is in only instantly is painful be determined, persuade its all member country is in short-term inside reduction of output of one-time raise the quota, fast and extinct whole world is superfluous inventory, ability stays to oneself break up dish hope. But below the setting that does not have this kind of boldness in OPEC, everybody also can be worn soon only oil price is on not to put in a road 's charge.

And the judgment that market personage judges OPEC to losing ability of value adjusting control also does not have blunder really. Because newest message shows, continued in OPEC after agreement of reduction of output, its crude total output is not decreased however add instead, make its cut down the whole world the original intention of policy of reduction of output of excess inventory comes true hard inereasingly. In this advocate because be, before because internal matter, by OPEC favour those who allow obligation of exempt reduction of output is Libyan wait for a country with Nigeria, its crude output tends in security bureau power of near future country after stability, appeared the growth of blowout type, still got OPEC to did not have this opportunity that specific crop restrains to its at the same time.

This also reflects the interior that gives OPEC to administer blemish, because light is OPEC itself, or its are the biggest petroliferous country sand is special, do not have the ability of order overall situation. Before this, iran and sand tend once more especially become enemies, "The mouth prepares Chinese medicine by roasting it in a pan " the circumstance with big ceaseless fight, had made everybody suspicion is under heavy contradiction, each a pact to shield each other of petroliferous country is returned whether hold on. And since this month, sand spy along with is other and thalassic the country is abrupt the state with Qatar fall out, also make this one doubt further deepen.

And the another factor that prompts oil price to drop, everybody is more familiar. Below the state of OPEC reduction of output, got cheap the industry of American shale oil that credit fund supports is taking the chance put into high gear contends for market share amain, mainland of predicting United States produces oily quantity to exceed 10 million pails / day will be time problem only. And American president Telangpu oil extraction of coastal waters of lift a ban, and exited those who aim to decrease a greenhouse gas " Parisian climate agreement " this one act, also make oily city excess supply foreground is changing benefit hair is serious.

Here the state falls, investor looks further to the foreground of oily city decline. The analyst of beautiful Yin Meilin thinks, oil price drops 20% are appetizing dish, after this still has amount to of 30% drop further space, final likelihood drops to 30 dollars interval, and this is the low price that since April 2016 place did not see.

The analyst points out, the configuration of oil price technology of the near future is very bad, the price just is defeated persistently drop, the technology that go up props up dish of aspect that ignores basically, this is the most typical the unilateral that does not pass drops prices. And carry without puissant message in message face brace up below the state, passageways of such be issued to lower levels are shut hard.

Before this, beautiful Yin Meilin ever thought, oil price can be in 45.5 dollars / the interval of the bucket gets propping up, but now, oil price is in drop cut this price dropped again 4% , your whole technology configuration had been formed " incurable " situation. And more important is, according to experience of in former years, annual between 6-7 month, after finishing busy season of contented summer demand to produce job of wants replenish onr's stock when refinery, the price can experience crude oil to drop seasonally. And overlay of change of state of this one external supply and demand over the prices of this weak already force, expect to the result of one disaster after another reachs since the meeting only.

And forecast oil price successfully to be able to be at the beginning of 2016 in those days drop to 26 dollars / of bucket cereal bottom famous trade Great Master Gordon also reminds say, according to the price signal of ETF market, oil price still has 15-20% drop space, drop possibly finally to 35-38 dollar / bucket interval ability sees an end

Additional, investment of famous the sources of energy agrees to amount to a husband to also express to developing the author of fund Again Capital, with current trend, NYMEX crude price falls to 40 dollars col already was big probability incident, defeat falls to come further later 35 dollars a gleam of also be nothing difficult.

This expert points out, although oil price continues to drop, may make really business of production of American shale oil faces cost pressure once more, but these oil extraction business had passed long-dated price agreement to be opposite risk of price of strong near future, although oil price drops,this is meant broken guarantee this place, they also can continue to maintain exploitation strength, till be opposite till strong space is extinct, and the time difference among this may be as long as 100 days.

Nevertheless, kendafu points out, oil price lasts for a long time unlikelily low fan, in each between petroliferous country newest round " feel wronged and act rashly " the situation ends, after everybody builds a consensus afresh, crop and demand unbalance state can get alleviating on certain level. In the meantime, it is after pair of strong reserve are extinct, shale oil market also can greet a future life to produce business to leave a height once more, the state of supply and demand that urges unbalance returns to normal afresh.

At least, the near future takes low background in oil price, the growth hasten of American crude output is applied already put delay somewhat, put in long term in light of, this is a message that your person feels trifling and gratified probably, but this still can't be in short-term the market from save in an abyss of suffering come out. And should make excess oil inventory fast return to normal, in be afraid the time that should await also imagines than everybody, want longer.

Probably, below the state that does not have solution in supply side, what everybody needs more is the good news that comes from demand level. If the whole world such as the United States and China is main,economic system rises a situation to good, to petrolic demand weighs hasten exuberant, there is superior show in car and domain of aerial demand large family especially, so excess oil tastes inventory to also can be quickened to use up, this and produce the condition that can exeunt together, probably before hopeful lets oil price expire in agreement of OPEC reduction of output, stability of go ahead of the rest comes down, but the state later, everybody can submit to the will of Heaven.